Don Dodge has a great analysis of the search market. To answer his question, flameout seems most likely to me; IPO and M&A will be tougher to find as the economy worsens.

Larger consideration is that search will not be disrupted by something that starts as a search engine. Google's has market share not because of a quality product, but rather because of great marketing and branding.

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The success of Google has spawned over 1000 search related startups. Search market share is dominated (94%) by the big five; Google 53%, Yahoo 20%, Microsoft Live 14%, AOL 5%, and Ask 2%. That leaves 6% for everyone else. ...

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