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Old 03-28-2010, 12:08 AM   #1
kidmercury
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Probabilities in Fund Raising

As I recently blogged about, I've spent a bit more time of late contacting investors, digitally, to see if I can raise money for The Business Plan That Saves the World. LOL, I still get a kick out of that.

Anyway, every time I say to myself, "okay, let's start focusing on this and making it a priority," I'm discouraged by the futility of it. Now, I should quickly note I am not a person who is easily discouraged; for starters, I'm a person who believes truthers can win -- most folks disregard everything on this site because they don't think the truth can win. I've also been working on The Business Plan that Saves the World for almost four years now, full-time, and another two years before that part-time (though it wasn't really The Business Plan That Saves the World until 2006, when the vision evolved to that point). So, I'm not a person who is easily discouraged.

I am, however, a person who likes to make decisions based on probabilities. And so, here are the probabilities I'm currently seeing:

1. The likelihood of getting an investment when you are "outside the loop" (i.e. no one knows who the f you are) is quite low. I do think, however, that the YCombinator/TechStars approach is going to change that, and make it more possible for an entrepreneur without the right connections to get support. And I have been searching for such programs that would be appropriate for me. Unfortunately, I haven't found any; they all seem to want pre-revenue startups (I've got revenue and profits), and they want a greater technology focus (my big advantage is that I do NOT focus on app development as a core competence, but rather push software development outside the firm by leveraging open source communities), and they want multiple active co-founders (I'm a solopreneur at this point). As the YCombinator style of investing evolves, I'm confident there will be more and more solutions suited towards businesses like mine. But, it may take some time before we get there. For me, probably too much time.

2. While I am confident things will change as they get worse, the kook factor will likely still be a dealbreaker for over 90% of investors -- investors, by definition, have money, and it is extremely rare for wealthy people to bring about any kind of meaningful political change (i.e. when you go to a 9/11 truth rally, it's not a millionaire's club. It's a kook club). Andreessen Horowitz is one firm I think could go kook, and so I've contacted them. Longtime readers will recall that I wrote a song for Marc, lol, that probably will be the dealbreaker, though I did try to explain it in the pitch I sent them. Though I doubt my explanation will prove sufficient, anyone who steps up to the plate and does even the smallest bit to spread the truth will understand the value in my antics, or at the very least will understand that it is doing more good than harm (of course, those who are willfully ignorant of the truth will have difficulty seeing that). Anyway, one of the reasons why I enjoy portraying Marc as a 9/11 truther, aside from the fact that it is another one of my bizarre jokes, is that when most investors/entrepreneurs say they want to change the world (which is practically all of them), I don't believe them. I believe Marc, though. He fits the psychological profile. And so, I want the world to see what I see. After all, strange as it may seem, the more we see it in Marc, the more he can see it in himself.

The songs I've written for Internet business people do have a purpose. Even my songs for jdawg, while they are "mean" and attempt to strike his ego, are done specifically for that reason; because based on my psychological assessment of him I don't think he'll respond to anything but an ego blow. Humorously, I did recently submit to the AngelList, a fantastic idea from Venture Hacks, and I believe jdawg is on that list. I'd actually love to have jdawg on my team (he has valuable experience in terms of building blog networks), though we would probably need a third party as well to balance things out, as jdawg probably does not realize all the risks involved, and the true implications of the trajectory of The Business Plan that Saves the World. No one who ignores the truth really can see that, for they are willfully blind. As is the kook mantra, only the truth can set us free.

So, at this point, I've submitted to Andreessen Horowitz, AngelList, and Fred. I thought about submitting to Mike Maples/FloodGate, because I think he has a similar enough vision, and because Maples is a near rhyme with angels, which could lead to a cool song. Lol, always gotta think about that.

3. But like I said, probability is how I prefer to make decisions, and the probability of getting an investment from them or anyone else is low. Even if an external party is interested, I'll ask so many questions and have so many concerns that it seems even lower. So, the next question: is it possible to raise money without investors?

Possibilities:

a.) Save up revenue from my current business. This is the default path. I think I have enough promising opportunities here, which is another reason why I haven't focused too much on external investments -- focusing on what I'm currently doing seems to be the safest bet.
b.) Monetizing Kid Mercury. I could make a serious music push. If I can sell a few hundred thousand copies of my music, that would do it (as it would be self-released profit margins would be a lot higher, and thus fewer sales required). Can I do that? Again, possible, but certainly not probable. I am going to make a more serious marketing effort when my concept album comes out, which hopefully will be in June. I also want to package a bunch of my blog posts into books, and market that. I think that might be a better source of revenue. Can I get a few hundred grand off books and music? I'm skeptical, but hopeful. More importantly, I think it is a better bet (meaning greater probability of success) than trying to contact investors.

The Collapse of Everything

Longtime readers will recall back in 2006 I wrote Culture 2.0: The Collapse of Everything. (Images in that report are missing, which sucks big time, I know. But when I put the book together, I'll fix that ). In that report I talked about how the economy was collapsing, and how this would destroy startup investing as we knew it, and would require something along the lines of small businesses working together to build themselves up, rather than relying on external investment. Think of the Japanese concept of keiretsu, as well as the Kid Mercury concept of the edge owning the core.

I still believe we are on this trajectory. But how long will it take? I'm not sure. I think, barring a drastic change in monetary and fiscal policy, the US dollar will lose all its value by 2025 at the latest.

So then what happens?

Who knows. It will depend on a lot of factors. My take, though, is that there will be a lot less concentrated wealth. I think we'll see a proliferation of smaller economies, more like terrorist networks and open source production communities than like Wall Street corporations and massive militaries. Then these economies work together and unite over standards to find ways to create greater efficiencies, and to rewire the global economy, network style. In my opinion, that is the new world order.
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