kidmercury

In the geekosphere the big talk of late has been Google Buzz, the new social media service from Google. Here's a quick recap:

1. Works from within side Gmail. THIS IS HUGE. I'll get to the hugeness of this shortly.
2. Lets you give public status updates (like Twitter). Automatically gives connects you with those you email and chat with in Gmail (this is why it is huge).

The big picture implications of this:

1. First, I'm assuming that Google can pull this off well. No guarantees on that. Google has missed on some apps of late. But I think they can do this one.
2. The reason I think they can do this one is because (1) email is perhaps the best tool for creating one's social graph -- for seeing who one is connected to, and for understanding the nature of their relationship.
3. Google is now everywhere. Coinciding with their launch of Google Buzz is more news about their ISP service. So what is the point of net neutrality now? The pro-net neutrality people argue that if we don't have net neutrality, the big Internet Service Providers will use their power to block applications (like Twitter, Google) or force them to pay fees, and basically "choke" the Internet. But if net neutrality legislation is passed to block telecom encroachment, what about Google encroaching on ISP turf -- don't they have the same threat now? Should web apps be restricted from entering the ISP business? That's what some would say, but notice how we are progressing further and further down the path of government while regulation -- all while government gets more and more broken (as evidenced most clearly by 9/11 being an inside job....I mean WTF people that will never get to be a small deal, no matter how many people ignore it....). I would also recommend folks check out the video below in which brilliant historian Webster Tarpley speaks about Google's involvement with the NSA and CIA:


4. Twitter, Facebook, and many other social networking services will begin to be in a lot of trouble. Basically, any social networking service that is more about reinforcing your existing relationships rather than helping you make new relationships is going to be exposed by Google Buzz. Email is the truest social graph, so in terms of helping you reinforce your relationships with your existing social network, email is best positioned to deliver this (and hence, why integration between Buzz and Gmail is huge). Niche social networks, however, are often more about helping you meet new people (music being a prime example, as it is often a part of how people make new friends across most cultures).

5. Any company that has a "spend a lot on servers and try to get a lot of users and then figure out the business model" approach is going to feel the Google squeeze. These companies focus on gathering ANY user rather targeting a niche user. They compete too closely to Google -- they will be seeking talented engineers as well -- who do you think is going to be able to offer a higher salary, more job security, and more prestige? Not always the deciding factors, but not factors anyone should go out of their way to compete with, either.

So what does defeat Google? A few things:

1. A non-technology company. I stand by my assertion that "the next Google" is a social gaming company. Zynga, you ask? Certainly they are the leading contender. Not convinced that their empire is well-defended, though.

2. A company that leverages commoditized technology, or technology that is largely produced by entities/organizations external to the firm -- like open source production communities.

3. A more international company; not as distinctly American as Google, and may even originate outside of America or simultaneously in multiple countries/economic regions.

4. A network of companies. I really favor the Japanese concept of Keiretsu. I think an investment fund can be a Keiretsu, and such an investment fund may in fact be "the next Google." If they invest in building games for blog stars, I think it is all the more likely. At least that's what I'm working on. It's The Business Plan that Saves the World!