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Old 05-05-2009, 07:47 AM   #1
kidmercury
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Update on the Economy, May 5

If you're tuning into the propaganda I mean news put out by mainstream media, you may think the economy is set to recover. I mean the stock market is rising, and if that happens that means everything is just great, right? RIGHT?

LOL. Maybe not.

A couple quick points:

1. While the US stock market has rallied a bit over the past couple months, the dollar has fallen. Against the EURUSD it is trading at around 1.3300; prior to the rally in the market, EURUSD was trading in the 1.20's (lower number means that 1 Euro buys you fewer US dollars....or that the dollar is strengthening relative to the Euro). If the market is rallying while the dollar is weakening, it is not a real rally. It is like if I gave you 10X the amount of money you currently have, but if prices increased 10X as well, then you would not really have gained any wealth.

2. While the stock market is rallying due to inflation, other stock markets around the world are rallying more. On top of this, China is shifting its reserves to gold, away from Treasury bonds and the US dollar. These two together suggest the global economy is becoming less dependent upon the US for demand.

What I'm Doing

I'm on the gold train and not getting off any time soon. When I receive earnings from my company each month, a portion of that goes into buying gold. Basically I store my long-term wealth in gold rather than US dollars. Silver too.

On a more short-term outlook, I'm in a short USDCAD trade, meaning I'm betting the Canadian dollar will rally against the US dollar. Not sure how long I'll be in this trade, though it's been a couple weeks already. I got stopped out once but re-entered. So far this trade is moving in my favor and I continue to add to my position as it does.

On the year, I'm currently slightly profitable (a little more than 1%) on a marked-to-market basis (meaning if I were to close all my positions now, I'd be up for the year). This year has been tougher for me and not nearly as easy as last year or the year before; being a trend-following trader, my trading strategy works far better in markets that are clearly trending in one direction. However I remain extremely confident that the dollar is going to lose a significant amount of its purchasing power within three years, likely sooner, and that precious metals will be the primary beneficiary of dollar devaluation (a friend of mine likes copper quite a bit as well, which I agree with to a large extent, and would probably get in on if I had more money. Oil and commodities in general are also great opportunities over the long run, in my opinion).

Of course, as I've stated many times before, dollar devaluation is what I think will truly shatter the US economy, liberate the global economy, and change the global political structure forever. It is also going to put A LOT of people out of business. While this will be tragic and will need to be mourned, we should remember that clearing away the old economy sets the stage for the creation of a new world order -- but one in which a liberated economy facilitates deliverance of the Truth that sets us free.

And the song for the post is "Free Fallin'" by Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers (the version below features Axl Rose on vocals as well....because Axl's my boy!). This is because that's what's going to happen to the US dollar soon enough: it'll be free fallin'!

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