kidmercury

I used to read a ton of business blogs, literally hundreds of them. Now I only read two: Fred Wilson and Jason Kolb.

I read Fred because he's my boss, because he's an outstanding writer, and because while he's drunk on the Obama kool aid and has optimism based on lies and wishful thinking rather than on the unconquerable human spirit, he's still a pretty visionary fellow, and hence worth paying attention to.

I read Jason because he's an Internet business person who lives in economic reality, something that is regrettably a remarkably rare occurrence. And Jason has some great insight; check his posts (on small businesses, on the future of venture capital, on investing in yourself). Here are the basic points he makes which I think are on the money:

• The US economy is going to get a lot worse
• The VC industry is on its last legs
• Small businesses are where it's at
• Time to invest in yourself

I'm in full agreement, I've been saying this stuff since 2006 and I'm sticking with it; it's all a part of culture 2.0, as far as I'm concerned. The only thing I disagree with Jason on is the inflation/deflation debate (see my previous posts on this topic here, here, and here); in my opinion, we will see falling financial asset prices, but the currency is going to get devalued as well and the price of consumer goods and the basic cost of living is going to rise significantly. Currency devaluation is the real story in my opinion and will be quite devastating.

The good news, as Jason pointed out, is that people are going to start investing in themselves. Slowly but surely, people are going to "unplug from the matrix" -- that system of government, corporate media, and public education that completely brainwashes people -- and start looking inside and developing their talents and following their dreams instead of just being a lifeless robot working for an equally lifeless corporation. This is going to result in a boom in entrepreneurship and a whole new way in which firms collaborate and collectively finance their growth. The "get some quick money from a VC and then do an IPO without ever having a real business model" days are over. And they are not coming back.

This is going to be painful. And while I view all of this as positive and paving the way for a much brighter future for all, it is a long road, it is fraught with peril, and it will require a drastic lifestyle change for most people if not everyone in America. If you're looking for an easier life, head to Asia. There is going to be a big boom there once they stop financing US consumption via using the US dollar as their reserve currency and lending to the US via the purchase of US Treasury bonds.

Oh, and I also read John Hagel, because he's smarter than everyone. Literally.