kidmercury

As making money is my favorite thing to do (aside from fulfilling my destiny, although lucky for me my destiny involves making lots of money ), I thought it would be a good time to kick off the new year with my investment thesis. This thesis applies through the end of 2012.

Why 2012?

As we have discussed before, the Mayan calendar ends at the end of 2012. This corresponds with a major "consciousness shift" which we talked about in our report on culture 2.0. I view the economic shift and the political turmoil, as well as the growing acceptance of 9/11 truth and the fact that the Federal Reserve is a scam, as evidence that the shift is happening, and I expect it to accelerate.

Public Market Thesis

Short the US economy. I am more bearish than almost everyone, as I've said repeatedly. Consistent with that notion I am bearish on stocks, bonds, and the US dollar. The dollar is the big one and is what is going to change the world.

Value moving east. Basically the US economy is a phony economy. The US government borrows money from China to create "stimulus packages" (perhaps more accurately referred to as "inflation packages") in which it tries to give money to failing industries so that they can continue employing people to make overpriced stuff no one needs or wants (as evidenced by the fact that they allegedly need these bailouts to begin with). Then, the employees of these bailed out companies use the money that was borrowed from China to buy products from China. LOL.

The world can only subsidize the US' existence for so long, and when it decides enough is enough, imports will decline and there will be a run on the dollar, causing massive currency devaluation. Eastern countries that are currently subsidizing US existence should rise once they stop giving us stuff for free. Japanese Yen and Australian dollar are two currencies I've been trading lately; I just closed out a Yen position I been in for over a month, and just entered an Australian dollar position. Singapore dollar and Chinese yuan are something I think could work well also, although I need to look more into it. Sadly, the glory days of the Euro/ US dollar trade may be coming to an end. Just got out of a small losing position in EURUSD. It's not behaving in its very predictable format like it was up until mid-2008.

Precious metals. As there are problems with all currencies, primarily because all major currencies are fiat and not commodity money, precious metals stand to rise. I've becoming increasingly fond of them. Gold and silver is the way to go.

The end of investing, the rise of trading. With the exception of gold and silver, I think "buy and hold" investing is over. Short-term trading is where it's at, as the market is more volatile than ever. For me and many other short-term traders, there are a few key rules that don't apply to buy and holders: (1) you never average down (meaning if the price falls, you don't buy more under the rationale that you will lower your total average cost) and (2) you follow momentum instead of trying to pick reversals. The second rule is a bit counter-intuitive, because most people think "buy low, sell high" but momentum traders think "buy high, sell higher."

There will probably be a time where even gold and silver need to be treated as trades rather than investments, but I don't see that happening for at least a year or two.

Private Market Thesis

I am referring to investing in US companies and the entrepreneurial environment in the US.

All the stuff we talked about in our business reports I still think are valid trends. In fact I'm more bullish on them and if I had more time I'd elaborate on all those reports. But I don't have the time, and the business people generally won't link to me because I'm too kooky for them, so there's no real incentive to publish good business content as links are the currency of the web. Too bad for the business folks the Truth is the currency that trumps all other currencies. But rest assured that will be apparent in time, if it is not already, as that is the big lesson the universe is patiently trying to teach us.

Though I do have some stuff I wanted to write regarding ideas on how 9/11 Truthers can more successfully build businesses. But we'll get to that later.

Anyway, here's what I'm thinking regarding US private companies:

1. Unbundle! See our article on unbundling and the economic crisis. This is the biggest key to success, in my opinion, and I don't think most businesses can do it. It's tough enough as it is, but most aren't even trying or don't know the importance of it.

2. Internet. Obviously I am very much a believer in the Internet, and while I expect the vast majority of Internet companies to fail, I think the opportunities on the web will still be there for US companies capable of unbundling and protecting themselves from dollar devaluation.

3. Servicing the East. This is something I'm really trying to make a priority for my business, although it's very tough -- doubly so if you don't have the right connections (and I don't). But as the US dollar falls apart there will be a great opportunity in servicing Eastern countries. You know how when you call Dell customer service they connect you to some dude in India? Soon enough we'll be able to flip the script on that, as the US will be the center for low cost labor.

4. Make Your Own Government. Something we've discussed before is the way private companies are taking on roles previously assumed to be that of the government. Increasingly, successful companies will blur the lines between government, family, and business. As usual Google is smarter than everyone in this regard, as they do stuff like have their own bus that provides employees with transportation, have their own cafeteria with free food, provide laundry services to employees, etc. It's like it's own world, and you never have to leave. This is very much a part of the coming revolution in which tyrannical government is overthrown, but most people aren't ready for that yet. Although as I build my business and look to get other businesses and other individuals involved, I want to approach it with the mentality of building our own community -- not just our own business. This is not just a "feel good" type of idea, it will do much to establish trust between co-dependent businesses and will help create loyalty. Those are two hugely important things, and will only become more important as other trends continue to progress.

I was about an hour late today with posting this -- apologies, got a little too festive last night. Which was fun and all, though when I opened my wallet this morning I was left wincing. I'm confident, though, that my investment thesis will help me be okay.

Unregistered

reading your blog .
got the link through twitter.
enjoying the analysis.

comment on one statement i think I understood correctly
I believe you said "truth isthe greatest currency" with which I tend to agree for a whole lot of reasons.

but I also suspect that peep since 1989, when this video was made

Truth is Out of Style



made a bunch of money frm following the momentum off the markets alone.
since the markets are filled with people who do not have, consciously, the entire information of what is going on, if you have Truth you may lose money.

In hindu-ism the goddess of truth and artistic skill was considered a separate goddess fro the goddess of wealth. A person would generally be considered to have to choose between.

I'm with you though. Doesnt have to be so. At least I dont think so

kidmercury

thanks for the comment. nice video too.

very, very true! that is why i always look to follow momentum, so i look for the intersection of momentum and Truth. in the currency market, which is what i trade, there were some opportunities to sell US dollar against the Japanese yen, as devaluing the dollar is part of the agenda and the momentum on USDJPY was down.

interesting what you noted about hinduism and the gods. i hope that as we approach the post-2012 consciousness shift we will see a merging of these conflicting dualities, so that wealth and Truth are positively correlated. perhaps we will have the opportunity to make it that way, if we so desire.