kidmercury

October was a great month for me for investing, I went up 3.1% to put my year to date at 18.6% (this does not include my floating gold and silver positions, which are down significantly, though I'm in them for the long-term....more on that shortly). I made a few psychological mistakes -- the volatility got to my nerves a bit -- and so I should be up even more, but hopefully I'll learn from that lesson going forward.

Anyway, I will publish my trading statement, with an analysis of it, at the end of the year. In the meantime, I want to thank all the people that closed out their carry trades that made the yen appreciate significantly against the US dollar in October. I couldn't have done it without you.

But, alas, it looks as though the USDJPY downtrend is consolidating, and thus I've exited my trade.

In fact, it looks like we're seeing consolidation in a lot of markets: DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P, gold, US dollar, crude oil. All of them seem to have found some strong support/resistance levels.

For traders, I would not recommend getting in until we see momentum. I am expecting a reversal -- resumption of dollar devaluation, gold and oil rally, possibly even a stock market rally (though less likely) -- but will wait until we get confirmation that a reversal is in fact in place. I am expecting the market to be range-bound until December or early 2009, though no point in trying to guess it, will just wait until the market breaks out of its range.

Long-term, the prognosis is the same. Which is:

+ Bearish on DJIA, Nasdaq
+ Extra bearish on housing and financial stocks
+ bearish on US dollar
+ bullish on gold
+ bullish on silver
+ bullish on oil

So I'm out of the market now (I only trade currencies and metals). The only thing I'm doing at this point is accumulating physical gold and silver (like actually buying coins and bars and accepting delivery of them), as there is price suppression going on and dealers are reporting physical shortages, so it's a "get it while you can" scenario.