You may have noticed or heard about the big drop in oil prices and the rise in the US dollar that have occurred recently.

So you're asking: WTF is going on?

I don't think much is going on. The conspiracy crowd will cite intentional manipulations, i.e. Plunge Protection Team style. Traders who use technical analysis may be inclined to argue that markets always overshoot themselves and this is simply a correction and a consolidation of previous gains. Being both a conspiracy factualist and a technical trader, I think there are merits to both viewpoints. Ultimately, I think we'll see the US dollar continue to fall, as there is no getting around the fact that the money supply has been excessively expanded and continues to be expanded, the inevitable result of which is higher prices across the board (oil too).

For technical traders, I personally would not consider buying US dollars unless EURUSD falls to 4450 (currently at approx 4925) -- I'd re-evaluate at that time. Currently, I'm out of the market; I cut all my positions when the market was trading between 5400 and 5950, and I won't look to go long EUR and short USD until we get past the all time high again (above 6050).

But that's just me, this is not investment advice, if your dumb ass trades this and loses all your money don't blame me, etc.

So in sum, enjoy the favorable move in prices, though I wouldn't count on it lasting too long.