Last time, we looked how Zoints and vBHackers (owned by vBSEO) could disrupt the vBulletin ecosystem.

The big idea is that Zoints and/or vBHackers (or another company that employs 2.0 strategies) could end up capturing more value from the vBulletin ecosystem than vBulletin.

The image below illustrates the concept.


Since Zoints and vBHackers profit by connecting parties within the vBulletin ecosystem, they profit from a larger ecosystem of vBulletin users. This is simply because a larger ecosystem allows for more connections to be made, and creates demand for services that facilitate making connections (in other words creates demand for services that allocate attention).

As such, companies on the edge of the vBulletin ecosystem (meaning a company outside of vBulletin) have an incentive to see the price of vBulletin reduced to zero, so that they can extract more value from their network strategies.

We can thus make the following assertions about the future of vBulletin:

• A company employing a 2.0 strategy -- meaning a strategy focusing on creating greater efficiencies in the attention economy -- will capture more value from the vBulletin ecosystem than vBulletin itself.
• Such a strategy will benefit from seeing the vBulletin ecosystem grow, as increases in the size of the ecosystem increase the value of services that increase ROI of attention
• Accordingly, once a firm with a 2.0 strategy is in a position to push the price of vBulletin down, they will propose initiatives to do just that.

There are, of course some key considerations:

• vBulletin is the keystone of the ecosystem. While they may not end up capturing most of the value of the ecosystem creates, the ecosystem is fundamentally dependent upon vBulletin. This means no one can benefits from seeing the company that builds and supports vBulletin being destroyed.
• It does, however, introduce the possibility of an acquisition.
• vBulletin itself can employ a 2.0 strategy by pushing its price to zero and creating services that focus more on helping members of its ecosystem reap greater returns on investments of their attention. They are already in a great position to do this, as they manage vBulletin.org, the largest site for vBulletin developers.

The vBulletin ecosystem offers a textbook example of how 2.0 strategies will disrupt the web. For a broader analysis of this subject, please see our report, The Game Plan for Web 2.0.

Next time, I'll wrap things up by talking about my experiences in the vBulletin ecosystem so that, should you ever choose to participate in the vBulletin ecosystem, you don't end up making the mistakes I did. :)

If you're just joining us, you can check out the start page of this report here.