Here's a list of 49 assumptions I have regarding the future of business on the web. The assumptions include spiritual and political assumptions; I see it as all connected and worth considering when planning strategy.

I'll probably update this list periodically. Feel free to share your thoughts.

1. assuming fairly free market conditions, prices go down and consumption goes up
2. web is being widgetized and rss-ified; it is moving towards a syndication economy
3. attention is a scarce resource whose value is rising
4. investments made in services that increase ROI of attention investments are rising in value
5. we're in the customization economy (aka personalization economy) -- all roads lead to a customized product for the consumer
6. as the amount of information increases, so too does the need for decentralization
7. value chains in the publishing industry will be disrupted by businesses that add value by facilitating media reconstruction
8. the media reconstruction disruption will be financed by an ad network that facilitates syndication of media
9. meta-information can be used to allocate attention
10. reconstruction will disrupt search due to its ability to allocate attention more efficiently
11. hagel's thesis (three types of companies: infrastructure, product creation, customer relations) is true
12. in the context of hagel's thesis, the blogger is positioned to provide customer relations
13. in the context of hagel's thesis, the largest online opportunity currently exists in the product creation category
14. the future of business is micro: small businesses with individuals working from home
15. the virtual corporation will replace the physical corporation
16. the nation-state as a model of societal governance is on the decline and will collapse
17. we are all psychologically connected, and from an evolutionary perspective, the Internet will help us strengthen our psychological connections
18. the world is pre-destined (as the oracle tells neo: we're not here to make the choice; we've already made it. we're here to understand why we made it)
19. clayton christensen's law of conservation of attractive profits
20. investments in private equity will grow while investments in public equity will decline (value chains will be disrupted accordingly)
21. upward trend of EURUSD exchange rate will continue
22. peer production lowers cost of production
23. peer production accelerates innovation
24. capability building is the only sustainable competitive advantage
25. clayton christensen's theory on disruptive innovation is true
26. product economy is being commoditized; value is shifting to the service economy
27. the cost of acquiring automated intelligence is falling (i.e. automated intelligence = automated information processing)
28. the value of human intelligence is rising (human intelligence = information process that requires human thinking {for now...})
29. humanism is the cultural norm of the Internet (although there can and will be variations within niche online communities)
30. Major terrorist attacks (i.e. 9/11, 7/7) that obtain widespread coverage in mainstream media come from "the ruling class" (ruling class = an international network comprising of elements within the mainstream media, military-industrial complex, intelligence agencies, supra-national governments, and finance cartels)
31. there is a conscious movement amongst the ruling class to transfer power from national governments to supra-national governments
32. the internet will create a cultural awakening through the remembering of history (see the hero collage in myth 2). history can no longer be erased (but can it be obscured in a sea of disinformation?)
33. transparency is a requirement to get trust
34. earning trust allows us to earn greater attention from our audience
35. educating customers is a way to earn trust
36. online community governance is a competence whose value is rising
37. online community building is a competence whose value is rising
38. seth godin's money paradox: the sooner you ask for money, the less you get
39. platforms will compete against each other for products (background info: the game plan for web 2.0)
40. network effects yield greater efficiencies in allocating attention
41. seth godin's viral marketing formula
42. fred wilson's future of media formula
43. online advertising will grow
44. mobile web will grow
45. significant growth of the mobile web in the United States is contingent upon the disruption of value chains in the mobile telecom sector
46. value chains surrounding content management systems will be disrupted by content management systems centered around sharing data and centralizing login identities.
47. the web is fundamentally social.
48. online communities and social networks will evolve into or be disrupted by simulated worlds (like SecondLife). i would expect this to become apparent during neptune's transit through pisces (circa 2012 - 2026)
49. no decision can be based on fear (caution = good; fear = bad)