It is true I am not knowledgeable about production and refineries. Lindsey Williams is, however, as he goes into the details of this matter in his book. The accuracy of his details is not something I can confirm, though I do find it interesting that he was able to call oil going to $50 when it was at $150.
Regardless, the reason oil prices are destined to go higher on a four year outlook (and not merely stabilize as you suggest) is because of dollar devaluation, which was the principle reason they went so high in 2008. Remember that demand destruction began BEFORE gas prices started falling. In fact, it was high gas prices that created initial demand destruction, but gas prices kept rising even as demand was falling. When prices rise as demand drops, it is a sign of currency instability (i.e. stagflation). Over the past few months we've seen the dollar strengthen, though rest assured the four year outlook remains the same, as the underlying fundamentals of the US dollar are still atrocious, and getting worse with each passing minute Obama and his cronies are in office.
Your thesis that prices will stabilize ignores the fact that dollar devaluation is a critical factor in determining the price of oil.
Looks like we both learned something today.
